After the conclusion of the Week 37 fixtures in the 2025/2026 Nigeria Premier Football League (NPFL) season, the battle for survival has reached a critical and highly tense stage, with relegation issues still unresolved across several clubs.
As the season approaches its final round of matches, uncertainty continues to hang over a significant number of teams who remain deeply entangled in the struggle to avoid dropping into the lower division.
With only one game left to decide the fate of the season, clubs positioned from 12th place down to 20th are still mathematically involved in the relegation equation.
This made me consult former Director of Sports (Technical) in the Kano State Sports Commission, Bashir Ahmed Maizare, PhD to explain the likely teams to be relegated and those to scale through.
Dr. Maizare, however, did not single out specific clubs by name in his final analysis. Instead, he offered a broad illustration of the situation, highlighting the various scenarios involving all the teams currently in danger and how different outcomes in the last round of matches could shape their final fate.
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He explained that the final matchday outcomes, whether victories, draws, or defeats, would collectively determine which clubs manage to survive and which ones eventually drop into the lower division. According to him, the relegation battle is so tight that even minor differences in results, goal margins, or head-to-head records could prove decisive.
In his overview, he emphasized that a combination of results across multiple fixtures will ultimately decide the final NPFL table, making the last day not only competitive but also highly unpredictable for all teams involved in the survival race.
According to him, a wide range of teams remain under threat, a situation that clearly reflects just how tight and competitive the bottom half of the table has been throughout the campaign, where only fine margins have often separated safety from danger.
As a result, the final day of fixtures is set to be one of the most dramatic and decisive in recent NPFL history, with several clubs entering high-stakes encounters that could determine their fate in the top flight.
For many teams, the outcome will hinge on fine details and narrow margins, as they battle either to secure their survival or face the disappointment and consequences of relegation after a long and demanding season.
Maizare stated that at the bottom of the table, Wikki Tourists FC remain rooted in 20th position with 40 points and are set to face a very difficult away fixture against Kun Khalifat FC.
He noted that Wikki’s chances of survival are extremely slim, as even a win in their final match would only lift them to 43 points, a tally that may still fall short of safety depending on how other relegation rivals perform.
He further explained that the situation places Wikki in a highly vulnerable position, where their fate is no longer fully in their own hands, but also dependent on results elsewhere across the league.
This makes their task not only challenging but also uncertain, as multiple outcomes must go in their favour for any realistic hope of survival.
On the other hand, Kun Khalifat FC currently sit in 15th position with 46 points and a goal difference of minus three. A victory for Kun Khalifat in their final fixture would take them to 49 points, a total that would almost certainly secure their NPFL status and remove any lingering relegation concerns.
As a result, the encounter carries contrasting stakes for both sides, survival desperation for Wikki Tourists and consolidation of safety for Kun Khalifat.
On the other hand, Dr. Maizare further noted that Bayelsa United FC currently sit in 19th position with 40 points and are scheduled to face Kwara United FC, who occupy 11th place with 47 points and a neutral goal difference.
He explained that the stakes for Bayelsa United are extremely high, as they must at least avoid defeat in this crucial encounter to retain any realistic chance of survival in the top flight.
Any loss could severely damage their hopes and potentially confirm relegation, depending on how other bottom-placed teams perform in their respective fixtures.
In contrast, Kwara United approached the match from a more stable position. A victory for them would lift their points tally to 50, effectively guaranteeing their safety from relegation and allowing them to end the season without further concern about the drop zone.
This makes the fixture significant for both sides, though for very different reasons, survival pressure for Bayelsa United and consolidation of security for Kwara United.
Similarly, Niger Tornadoes FC are placed in 18th position with 45 points and a neutral goal difference, and they will host high-flying Shooting Stars SC, who currently sit 3rd on the table with 60 points and are actively competing for a continental qualification spot.
Dr. Maizare observed that this fixture presents a difficult but decisive test for Niger Tornadoes, as they must secure maximum points to push their total to 48 and strengthen their survival prospects.
However, any result short of victory could leave them exposed to relegation danger, especially given the tight nature of the bottom half of the table and the dependence on other match outcomes.
For Shooting Stars, the match remains equally important, as they aim to maintain momentum in their push for a continental ticket, making the encounter highly competitive at both ends of the table.
The former Chairman of the Nigeria’s Directors of Sports Forum further stated that Warri Wolves FC currently sit in 17th position with 46 points and a minus six goal difference, as they prepare for a challenging encounter against Abia Warriors FC, who occupy 7th place on the table with 55 points.
He explained that the match carries significant weight for Warri Wolves, as a victory would elevate them to 49 points, a tally that could be sufficient to secure their survival regardless of other results across the league.
However, anything less than maximum points would leave them exposed to the possibility of relegation, depending on how their direct rivals perform.
Similarly, Remo Stars FC are placed 16th with 46 points and a minus five goal difference, and they face a tough away fixture against Bendel Insurance FC, who have accumulated 55 points this season.
He noted that Remo Stars must approach the game with urgency and determination, as only a win would move them to 49 points and place them in a strong position to retain their NPFL status. Given the tight nature of the relegation battle, even a draw or defeat could prove costly if other results go against them.
In another crucial fixture, Enyimba FC, one of Nigeria’s most successful and decorated football clubs, currently occupy 14th position with 46 points and a minus one goal difference.
They are set to host El-Kanemi Warriors FC, who sit in 13th place with 47 points and a minus 13 goal difference. This encounter stands out as one of the key direct survival battles on the final day of the season.
A victory for Enyimba would lift them to 49 points and guarantee their safety in the top flight, while El-Kanemi Warriors also enter the fixture needing a positive result to avoid slipping into the relegation zone.
As a result, the match is expected to be highly competitive and tense, with both sides fully aware that the outcome could determine their NPFL status for the next season.
Another decisive encounter, according to Maizare, is the clash involving Plateau United FC, who currently sit in 12th position with 47 points and a minus two goal difference.
They are set to host Kano Pillars FC, who occupy a slightly higher position with 48 points and a minus four goal difference.
He explained that Plateau United must aim for victory in order to reach 50 points and completely secure their survival in the NPFL without depending on other results.
For Kano Pillars, although they are marginally above the immediate danger zone, the fixture remains equally important.
Maizare noted that they must at least avoid defeat to eliminate any lingering threat of relegation and ensure there are no late complications on the final day of the season.
Given the narrow points difference among teams in the lower half of the table, even a single result could significantly alter their standing.
Overall, the Week 38 fixtures are expected to determine the final relegation picture of the 2025/2026 NPFL season.
The survival battle cuts across several clubs, including Wikki Tourists, Bayelsa United, Niger Tornadoes, Warri Wolves, Remo Stars, Enyimba, El-Kanemi Warriors, Kun Khalifat, Plateau United, and Kano Pillars.
“In such a tightly contested scenario, goal difference, head-to-head records, and final match outcomes are all likely to play crucial roles in deciding which teams retain their place in the Nigeria Premier Football League and which ones suffer relegation at the end of the campaign,” Dr. Bashir Maizare concluded.
